Wednesday Wisdom

Thucydides Trap

WHO?

Thucydides was born into a wealthy and influential Athenian family around 460 BC. Civic duty, being an essential part of Athenian life, Thucydides joined the military and eventually became a general. When his general Strategos, who was stationed on an offshore island and failed to warn Thucydides, the important city of Ampmpilos was attacked and captured by the Spartans during the Peloponnesian wars. The Peloponnesian wars lasted 27 (431-404 BC) years between the two prominent and powerful city states and their allies named the Delian League led by Athens against the Peloponnesian League led by Sparta. The loss of this critical city by Thucydides to Sparta in 424 BC resulted in being sent into exile. Despite this humiliation, and while being exiled, Thucydides traveled over the next 20 years chronicling the war.

What he is known for

Thucydides History of the Peloponnesian War remains one of the most detailed historical accounts of antiquity that provided tremendous insight into the actual conflict between Athens and Sparta. He was highly analytical, avoiding myths and legends, and relied on eyewitness testimony and official documents making his transcript a historical document.

The rule of Pericles lasted from 461 BC- 429 BC and was the highlight of Athens “golden Age” which was between 481 BC and 404 BC, ending in the loss of the Peloponnesian War to Sparta. This period saw unparalleled achievements in art, philosophy, architecture, drama, and democracy. During that time Athens built an empire with a powerful navy and established a network of allies which they supported.

While Athens flourished, it became the preeminent city-state and force in the Mediterranean, Sparta was already established as a military force with a large army. Athens democratic ideals and naval power contrasted Sparta’s oligarchy, feudal society and military making the two city states natural rivals. Eventually Athen’s dominance in the region and its expansion of power threatened Sparta and their allies leading to tensions in 431 BC.

While chronicling the war, Thucydides gives insights into the conflict by analyzing the causes, strategies and the human and societal impacts of the war. He also includes Athens most famous general and statesman’s speech, Pericles’ Funeral Oration, which has delivered after the first year of the war. It has been cited as one of the great speeches of all time and has been compared to the Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address. In the speech Pericles gives praise of Athenian democracy and highlights Athens’ political system, where power is based on merit rather than wealth or birth. He contrasts Athens with other states, like Sparta emphasizing freedom, equality, and civic participation. Pericles cites Athens as the model for all societies due to its open society that values culture, military strength, and intellectual achievement. Lastly, he glorifies the fallen soldiers, arguing that their deaths were noble because they died defending Athens.

Pericles oration goes; "Most of those who have spoken before me have commended the lawgiver who added this oration to our ceremonies, for they say it is right that words should be spoken over men who have fallen in battle. For my part, I should have thought that the deeds of brave men needed no embellishment of words, that their honor should be expressed through the act itself. But, since our ancestors saw fit to establish this custom, I must obey and do my best to honor the dead."

The Greatness of Athens
"Let me begin by speaking of our ancestors, for it is right and fitting to do so. They dwelt in this land, handed it down to us, and by their courage and virtue, made it free. We ourselves, living in the same place, have advanced Athens to her present greatness. We have a system of government that does not imitate others. Our government is called a democracy because it is in the hands not of a few, but of the many. Here, every man is equal before the law, and public advancement is based on merit, not wealth or class."

"We are free in our private lives, and in public affairs, we abide by the law. We do not regard one another with suspicion, nor do we begrudge our neighbors for their success. Instead, we are generous in spirit and open in our dealings. While we love beauty, we do so without extravagance, and while we cultivate our minds, we do so without losing our strength."

"We trust in our courage rather than in elaborate preparations. Unlike others who are trained from youth to be warriors, we face danger voluntarily, acting from principle rather than compulsion. We are unique in combining both refinement and bravery, and this makes us the admiration of Greece."

Honoring the Fallen
"These men whom we honor today proved their worth in both peace and war. They chose to die resisting rather than to live submitting. They gave their lives for the common good, proving themselves worthy of their city. No words can truly capture their glory, for their deeds speak louder than any speech. Their sacrifice is an eternal testament to their courage, and as long as Athens endures, their memory will live on."

"For those of us who remain, let us resolve to emulate their example. Parents, though you grieve, take pride in the honor of your children. For those who are young, remember that happiness lies in freedom, and freedom in courage. Do not be afraid of hardship, for a life lived with honor is better than one lived in shame."

Final Words
"I have spoken not only to honor the dead but to inspire the living. Let Athens be your love, and may you be willing to serve her as these men have done. Their sacrifice has secured our city’s greatness, and as long as we remain steadfast in our duty, Athens will never fall."

2025 why its relevance prevails

Thucydides, in The History of the Peloponnesian War, explained the cause of the war between Athens and Sparta as follows: "It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable." This suggests that when power grows rapidly, the existing dominant power feels threatened, increasing the likelihood of conflict. More importantly it contrasted to different forms of government that were intrinsically opposed. Athens promoted the ideals of democracy and liberal culture while Sparta represented an oligarch government with a strong militaristic tradition.

In its pursuit of victory and power, Athens let its ethical standard slip and alienated its allies. Leadership after Pericles faltered, while Pericles was strategic and cautious, Cleon was aggressive and a populist that represented the commercial class. Overconfidence in their naval power and the defensive walls around the city along with strained relationships with their allies led Athens into a trap from which they never recovered. Instead of a voluntary alliance, Athens forced city-states to stay in the league and pay tribute, contradicting its ideals of freedom. Athens destroyed the neutral island of Melos, killing its men and enslaving its women and children, arguing that "the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must." Athens' failure to live up to its own ideals ultimately played a role in its defeat by Sparta 404 BC. Thucydides criticized Pericles successors for prioritizing popularity over effective governance leading to a decline of political stability. Although Athens remained culturally influential, it never regained its former power or empire. Sparta’s harsh rule made it unpopular, leading to its undoing and eventual decline. Macedonia (under Philip II and later Alexander the Great) took control of Greece in the 4th century BC effectively ending the city-state governments and influence.

The term "Thucydides Trap" was coined and popularized by Graham Allison, a political scientist at Harvard University, in his book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap? (2017). He based this concept on the historical analysis of Thucydides, who chronicled the Peloponnesian War (431–404 BCE) between Athens and Sparta. Allison concludes that when a rising power threatens to displace an established power, the risk of war increases significantly. He cites 16 such cases were 12 ended in conflict like Great Britain/Germany in WW1, France vs Hapsburg Spain and Napoleonic France and England. However, he concludes that in some cases conflict can be avoided like the Cold War (U.S. vs. Soviet Union), due to diplomacy, cooperative trade and strategic restraint.

Allison says a similar strategy could work for the United States and China. “If the two countries engage in peaceful competition in the coming decades, they might keep themselves from falling into the Thucydides Trap.” 

The wisdom and ethics of ancient Athens remain as relevant today as they were 2,500 years ago, just as the cautionary tale of the Thucydides Trap continues to hold lessons for us.

And now you know...

Thanks, Dad, for the gift of curiosity!

Philosophy is the art of thinking, the building block of progress that shapes critical thinking across economics, ethics, religion, and science.

METAPHYSICS: Literally, the term metaphysics means ‘beyond the physical.’ Typically, this is the branch that most people think of when they picture philosophy. In metaphysics, the goal is to answer the what and how questions in life. Who are we, and what are time and space?

LOGIC: The study of reasoning. Much like metaphysics, understanding logic helps to understand and appreciate how we perceive the rest of our world. More than that, it provides a foundation for which to build and interpret arguments and analyses.

ETHICS: The study of morality, right and wrong, good and evil. Ethics tackles difficult conversations by adding weight to actions and decisions. Politics takes ethics to a larger scale, applying it to a group (or groups) of people. Political philosophers study political governments, laws, justice, authority, rights, liberty, ethics, and much more.

AESTHETICS: What is beautiful? Philosophers try to understand, qualify, and quantify what makes art what it is. Aesthetics also takes a deeper look at the artwork itself, trying to understand the meaning behind it, both art as a whole and art on an individual level. A question an aesthetics philosopher would seek to address is whether or not beauty truly is in the eye of the beholder.

EPISTEMOLOGY: This is the study and understanding of knowledge. The main question is how do we know? We can question the limitations of logic, how comprehension works, and the ability (or perception) to be certain.